Economic growth outlook for 2026

 With Reserve Bank expectations for economic growth increasing from -0.5% in Sept 2025 to 2.8% in March 2027, climbing to 3.1% in 2028 and inflation falling from 3% to 2.2% then 2.0% and economists stating, this is what the markets have priced in, we’re back in positive territory and heading in the right direction.

Insights with Infinance by Brian Coogan

To that end, interest rates are likely settled with a small chance of minor easing in February but tipped to increase slightly by year’s end following the Australian example.

This is likely to usher in a shift toward looking at longer term fixed mortgage rates, and no doubt there will be plenty of commentary around that as we progress throughout the year.

So here we are, with the worst behind us. If we had a crystal ball, we would say 2025 was a year of settling and 2026 will be a year of steady growth, the curtain raiser leading into 2027.

In 2027, it will be a game of two halves with the second half more dynamic, coinciding with the Rugby World Cup in Oz and expected tourism uplift here and 2028 seeing some proper economic prosperity through 2029 and beyond. It takes about that long for the economic machine to crank its way back up again with all being well in the world, which is questionable.

No one can really tell for sure but cycle-wise we’re poised for growth and economic confidence ahead, provided geopolitical factors don’t rain on our parade and the upcoming election outcome supports continued economic growth. Importantly, there are no signs of any impediment to sustainable growth in the economy going forward.

 Written by Brian Coogan, Licensed Financial Adviser and Director at Infinance – Taupō. 

 If you’re walking down the right path and you’re willing to keep walking, eventually you’ll make progress – Barack Obama.