Waiting on the ‘Ring of Fire’
The July 31 magnitude 8.8 earthquake on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia – among the world’s 10 largest earthquakes since 1900 – is a reminder of the power of the Pacific Rim of Fire and its ability to move mountains.
New Zealand’s own Alpine Fault is part of the Rim of Fire, with a fault about 700km long stretching along most of the length of the South Island.
‘Past, Present, and Future Earthquakes on the Alpine Fault: What Lies Beneath and What Lies Ahead’ a public lecture in Taupō by Victoria University professor of geophysics John Townend, will summarise new understandings of the Alpine Fault’s earthquake-generating behaviour, including recent paleo-seismological, geological, and seismological studies.
Painstaking research in the last decade has yielded one of the most spatially- and temporally- extensive records of pre-historic earthquakes of any fault worldwide. This record shows that the Alpine Fault produces large earthquakes at about 300-year intervals and that the inferred earthquake magnitudes of those earthquakes depend on how many sections along it rupture simultaneously.
The hazards posed by the Alpine Fault are stark, says Townend, the last fault earthquake was about 308 years ago and there is an estimated 80% likelihood of a magnitude 8 earthquake occurring in the next 50 years.
His lecture at Waiora House on Tuesday, September 2 at 5pm, will review the recent scientific results and address steps we can take now to record valuable data during the next Alpine Fault earthquake.
Organised by the New Zealand Geoscience Society, the talk is supported by Taupō Lakes and Waterways Trust.